Forecast on Spot Gold (Spot Gold, NZDUSD, USDSGD)

Spot Gold

SPOT GOLD closed @ 12510 which was ABOVE the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 0.5 Dollars from Precise Trader's Res Tgt 2 and the Low was 2 Dollars from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 1. The Hourly Oscillators are Bullish but Weak and the Price is Above the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed for the Bulls. Hourly Trend is Turning Down while 12650 holds and Daily Trend is Limited Up while 12225 holds, so expect the price to Turn Down Soon, so the Bulls may stay Sidelined and the Bears get ready to pull the Trigger. The Daily Trend is still Bullish and was Trading within a Range but the Bulls gave Up Mildly towards the Close which signifies a Choppy session until the Break. The MA is suggesting that the Bulls are Weakening but may test the 12650 level before a Reverse. The Hourly Trend has been in a Range Trading with a Limited Upside Bias and the Patterns are suggesting that 12545 must give way to reach the Price Target ,12455-405 are the Critical levels to watch to maintain the Bullish Outlook. The Opening Price Principles are Mixed , so Cautious approach is needed until the price breaks out of Zone 1 levels.

BULLS: 12460 12405 12340 BEARS: 12525 12590 12655

Today's Strategies: Trade @ the Bulls & Bears Levels Only.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD closed @ 7145 which was ABOVE the open and breached the previous day's high. The High was 55 pips from Precise Trader's Res Tgt 3 and the Low was 125 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 1. The Hourly Oscillators are Bullish and the Price is Above the MA, so the Bears have to be Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 7095 holds and Daily Trend is also Sideways while 6945 holds, so expect the price to be Choppy until Breakout. The Daily Trend is still Bullish but just moving out of Trading Range but the Bulls gave Up Mildly towards the Close which signifies a Choppy session until the Break. The MA is suggesting that the Bulls have momentum to test the Highs. The Hourly Trend has been in a Range Trading with an Upside Bias and the Patterns are suggesting that 7185 must give way to reach the Price Target of 7250-70 , 7105-7080 are the Critical levels to watch to maintain the Bullish Outlook. The Opening Price Principles are Mixed , so Cautious approach is needed until the price breaks out of Zone 1 levels.

BULLS: 7085 7035 6985 BEARS: 7230 7285 7330

Today's Strategies: LONG near 7105 7085 with a tight stop with a 50 pips price target.

USDSGD

USDSGD closed @ 13460 which was UNCHANGED from the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 5 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 1. The Hourly Oscillators are Bearish but Oversold and the Price is Below the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed for the Bears. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 13525 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Down while 13615 holds, so expect the price to be Choppy until Breakout. The Daily Trend is still Bearish but is losing momentum but the Bears gave Up Mildly towards the Close which signifies mild Strength . The MA is suggesting that the Bears are still Strong but the Oscillators are suggesting we may see a pullback. The Hourly Trend has been in a Range Trading with a Limited Downside Bias and the Patterns are suggesting that if 13425 gives way we can expect the Price to reach 13370-25 before a Reverse ,13500-25 are the Critical levels to watch to maintain the Bearish Outlook. The Opening Price Principles are Mixed , so Cautious approach is needed until the price breaks out of Zone 1 levels.

BULLS: 13425 13370 13310 BEARS: 13515 13545 13605

Today's Strategies: Trade @ the Bulls & Bears Levels Only.

Daily Outlook

The 1.0186 resistance held well. Since then we have seen what could be considered the resumption of the downtrend but being in the early stages without strong momentum we still need to be mindful of an earlier deeper correction. To handle the downside first, we'll need price to remain below 1.0157-84. It could decline directly and this will be signaled by a loss of this morning's 1.0122 low. If seen look for follow-through into the 1.0064-95 area and once this is cleared the decline should accelerate through minor support at 1.0035 and onto 0.9995-05 minimum and probably 0.9958. I look for this to generate a correction.

Only a break above 1.0157-84 would imply the deeper pullback into the 1.0207-27 resistance area. If seen look for bearish trade set ups there for resumption of losses. Above 1.0230 would extend gains more directly through to 1.0255-65 and probably to around 1.0289. Only above would imply 1.0350-80 and above there the 1.0450 corrective high.

Medium Term Outlook

2nd September:

The breach of 1.0140 has been just too deep to retain the structure I had been looking at and therefore this should remain below 1.0186-27 and see losses down through yesterday's 1.0064 low to 0.9859-82 initially where a pullback is expected and a final target around the 0.9760-70 area.

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Only directly back above 1.0227 would surprise and suggest follow-through above 1.0308, 1.0350 and to the 1.0450 corrective high...

EUR/USD, consolidating above 1.2800 ahead of NFP

Euro recovery from week lows at 1.2625 found resistance at 1.2850/60 area, and the pair, has remained consolidating during Asian session, trading practically flat between 1.2810 and 1.2835 with NFP on focus.

On the upside, immediate resistance area lies at 1.2850/60 (Sept 1/2 high), and above here, 1.2900 (Aug 19 highs) and 1.2925/35 (Aug 12/18 high). On the downside, support levels lie at 1.2295/10 (intra-day support levels), and below here, 1.2740 (Aug 30 high) and 1.2660 (Sept 1 low/intra-day support).

EUR/JPY decline from Monday's high at 109.55 found support on Tuesday at 106.15/20, and the pair picked up to consolidate overt the latest sessions within a range from 107.45 to 108.30.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis provides for market depth data in comparison with all limit-based orders available from Forex broker’s clients. Market depth data will only be available if you trade with a reliable broker. There is no unified way to determine the true market depth of Forex. FOREX is a decentralized market, it has no fixed centralized exchange, where all data could be gathered. Thus, it is impossible to measure the true market depth in currency trading. The direction of the market - the so-called trend - can be determined. You should switch to the daily charts to identify the main trend. It should be seen without any indicators. In case with a ranging market, you have to seek the answer about the market trend from the higher chart – a weekly chart. Trading news is recommended to determine the main daily trend. You should also review Forex Economic calendar, especially the Forecast column to analyze market expectations. If after comparison of the forecast and previous data you get the same suggestion about the market direction as the daily trend, you can consider trading it.

Technical Analysis

There is no formula to tell whether tomorrow there will be a trend or not. There are a few things Forex traders may check in order to anticipate certain market behavior on a next day. Check if there is important news to be released tomorrow for the currencies you'll be trading. If so, you can expect decrease in Forex market activity right before the news, or even starting from the early morning hours. A high increase of activity after the news hours is a result of market being shaken out, a new or an old trend being identified, confirmed or changed, and as a result, every Forex trader would be looking to join in. Another factor that could help to judge about the market trending conditions tomorrow is a price approaching near major support/resistance level. When this happen, price tend to consolidate, test and try before either turning back or breaking out. During such periods traders find frequent sharp price turns, increased volatility, but without price progressing much in either direction. Another simple factor could be the angle of the Moving average. If the Moving average is flat, flows horizontally without significant incline to either up or downside, you can pretty much conclude that the market is flat. On this assumption it would be logical to identify price channeling boundaries and avoid trading with trend following strategies until price breaks out of the channel.

Money Management

Trade with Sufficient Capital One of the worst mistakes that Forex traders can make is attempting to trade without sufficient capital. The trader with limited capital not only be looking to minimize losses beyond the point of realistic trading, but he will also frequently be taken out of the trading game before he can realize any sense of success trading. Exercise Discipline Discipline is probably one of the most overused words in Forex trading education. However, discipline continues to be the most important behavior one can master to become a profitable trader. Discipline is the ability to plan your work and work your plan. It is the ability to give your trade the time to develop without hastily taking yourself out of the market simply because you are uncomfortable with risk. Discipline is also the ability to continue to trade the methods and patterns even after you’ve suffered losses. Do your best to cultivate the degree of discipline required to be a world-class trader. Be Aware Never follow blindly by entering the market first, figure things out before plunging in. Do not be greedy, be patient and set realistic targets daily. Admit your mistakes and never commit them again. You should be open to learning. Invest your valuable time to truthfully and completely comprehend the complexities and fundamentals of Forex trading.

Trading Psychology

There are some simple principles that are essential keys to unlocking the door toward becoming a millionaire, or at least gaining a little more than losing. Have a Plan. Many traders do not realize that trading is more complex than it seems. It should not be driven by merely a hunch. A good trader is always ready with a realistic plan. This plan should include sophisticated research and examination of the currencies as well as stop and limit levels of the trade. This prepared plan should have an analysis of the expected upside along with the downside. Cut your losses at an early stage and bó loyal to your profit earners. Some traders want to believe that their losses might still do well after a good waiting time. But the market moves against these non-profitable positions and makes them lose hundred of points, not recovering enough to sustain even if they do rise again. Do not be caught in the belief that every trade should be profitable. Play Smart. Don’t let your emotions rule in trading. Always be objective with your decisions. While in the market, do not hope that it will move in a favorable direction just for you. Be sensitive enough to see the factors that may have influences the changes that transpired against the original analysis you had made. If the considerable signs are there, reconsider your losing position. Do not overtrade. This is one of the most common mistakes traders make. Leveraging your account too high by trading far larger than before puts you in a very vulnerable position. Always analyze the charts correctly and use this information to derive at a sensible trading decision. One good tip is to limit your leverage at 10%; in this way, you won’t be forced to exit a position at a wrong time, before you even get a win.