Daily Outlook

The 1.0186 resistance held well. Since then we have seen what could be considered the resumption of the downtrend but being in the early stages without strong momentum we still need to be mindful of an earlier deeper correction. To handle the downside first, we'll need price to remain below 1.0157-84. It could decline directly and this will be signaled by a loss of this morning's 1.0122 low. If seen look for follow-through into the 1.0064-95 area and once this is cleared the decline should accelerate through minor support at 1.0035 and onto 0.9995-05 minimum and probably 0.9958. I look for this to generate a correction.

Only a break above 1.0157-84 would imply the deeper pullback into the 1.0207-27 resistance area. If seen look for bearish trade set ups there for resumption of losses. Above 1.0230 would extend gains more directly through to 1.0255-65 and probably to around 1.0289. Only above would imply 1.0350-80 and above there the 1.0450 corrective high.

Medium Term Outlook

2nd September:

The breach of 1.0140 has been just too deep to retain the structure I had been looking at and therefore this should remain below 1.0186-27 and see losses down through yesterday's 1.0064 low to 0.9859-82 initially where a pullback is expected and a final target around the 0.9760-70 area.

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Only directly back above 1.0227 would surprise and suggest follow-through above 1.0308, 1.0350 and to the 1.0450 corrective high...